The Falcons on Sunday night / Monday morning did what many in the media and fan base asked for and fired head coach Arthur Smith. Arthur Smith in his tenure with the Falcons produced 3 straight 7-10 seasons, and this last season was marred with mistakes and inconsistency. So how did we get here?
Arthur Smith’s first season was a patchwork roster trying to begin the process of turning the page. After arriving, Smith and Fontenot decided to move Julio for what seemed to be a steal for the Tennessee Titans for a second round pick and fourth round pick. In hindsight, this proved to be a strategically smart move as Julio has not captured the form he showed for a decade in the red and black. Early win for what would be a long season. Matt Ryan looked very typical, but Calvin Ridley steps away and subsequently gets suspended for a season for gambling. Falcons rushing attack was abysmal leading the way for Cordarelle Patterson to fill a void. Ultimately, Falcons lacking any rushing threat and their only receiver being a rookie tight end, they finished where you’d expect around 7-10. All things considered, its a bit of a feat for that team, who’s best players were an aging Matt Ryan, cast out Cordarrelle Patterson, and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. The offense is as bad on paper as the New York Jets this season, but finished markedly better thanks in large part to Matt Ryan not turning the ball over. Overall fans weren’t happy but realized the state of the franchise and this was the expected outcome.
Arthur Smith’s second season is the worst roster he’d had to date. Falcons come into the season with 36% of their cap (after Deion Jones trade) being utilized on dead contracts and players no longer on the team. Going into the season, the Falcons were predicted by many to be one of, if not THE, worst team in the NFL. PFF ranked them 30 out of 32. The fans, media, ownership, everybody knew the Falcons were in for a long season and had a shot at the #1 pick in the 2023 draft. Instead, Arthur Smith / Terry Fontenot found some life with picks like Tyler Allgeier and Drake London. However, Kyle Pitts would go down with a knee injury half way through the season, and Marcus Mariota proved why he has been a backup since his time with Arthur Smith in Tennessee. Still, the Falcons managed to pull off another 7-10 record and the offense took strides forward. All in all, many fans walked away feeling Arthur Smith’s team overperformed expectations and some hype started to step in with the Falcons shedding a large piece of the dead cap purgatory they found themselves the last two seasons. If they could upgrade at QB, maybe this team could start winning again.
Arthur Smith’s third season was his worst. Expectations came in high from fans who pictured an easier strength of schedule. Falcons go from 15th in total offense to 26th. The offense at times looks to be disjointed and the QB play continues to show its ugly head. Desmond Ridder led the league in turnovers and AVERAGED more than 2 a game. To make matters worse, the turnovers were generally at the worst times with the Falcons fighting for a game. The offensive line gets decimated with injuries and the run game starts to stall which only compounds the issues at QB as the season wears on. Then you have some odd calls (like a TE pass) that give an illusion of a coach and team who cannot function. At times, the team couldn’t. The Falcons surprisingly went 3-1 against playoff teams in 2023. However, they went 4-9 against teams who missed the playoffs. The frustrating parts for the fans is the way they lost. Heartbreakers and turnovers against teams struggling themselves (Titans with Levis, Vikings minus Cousins, Cardinals in Murray first game back) really leaves a bad taste in your mouth. Those are all winnable games. In fact they should have been won with just mediocre QB play. The QB position averaged 2 turnovers a game in 2023 and did not go a single game without turning the ball over. You cannot win in the NFL with the most important position showing poor ball security.
So why does this matter? The Falcons were a franchise in a bad state when Arthur Smith was hired. Prior to 2023, Arthur Smith was well valued as an offensive play caller / designer. My how fast things change, and that’s the point. Does anyone believe Arthur Smith went from being a brilliant mind across the league to an idiot in 2023? Doesn’t seem logical. The bigger issue is the message it sends: You can go from being praised for coaching up a team, to fired in a single season. This is the NFL after all, but time and time again fans and media are wrong. So making decisions at the whims of such can prove just as disastrous.
Lets talk the bigger picture. The Falcons since Arthur Smith has taken over have been in a clear rebuild state. Even going into 2023, PFF ranked the Falcons 27th out of 32. That’s good for a top 6 pick in the draft. ESPN had Falcons 26th out of 32. Most projections had the Falcons winning between 7 and 9 games this season. The Falcons won 7. Fans know with even a modest upgrade at QB, Falcons win 10. Lets first establish that the Falcons were not projected to be a playoff team, and the ones who did were only doing so based on the weakness of the NFC South not because they believed they had any legitimate shot to be a championship contender. The Falcons were always expected to struggle this year.
If expectations were low, why the backlash? This comes from a few area’s in particular; the usage of Bijan Robinson, the usage of Kyle Pitts, questionable play calls at times, and Smith’s general negative demeanor to the media. All of these are fair critiques, but only one personnel complaint expands beyond this season (Kyle Pitts). If we review Pitts situation further, we find this wasn’t really an Arthur Smith issue most games. Kyle Pitts had the lowest catchable ball rate in the NFL. There’s not a Falcons fan who cannot think of a time the last 2 season where Pitts was wide open and over thrown by 5yds. The reason Pitts has declined is easily explainable with the decline of QB play. QBs are crucial to a TE success. Windows are tighter, and timing is crucial. Its not surprise Matt Ryan was able to utilize him as he knew these intricacies. Since, Mariota and Ridder have failed to make the right reads or deliver catchable balls. The usage of Bijan is a little easier. Arthur Smith eases running backs into the NFL. Its a long season and coming out of college, your body isn’t built for the grueling demands of the 17 game NFL yet (think of all the really good rookie running backs who got hurt the last few years). Smith did this with Henry as well. Give them a season to adjust if you can. The Falcons had other viable options to try and protect Bijan long term given his future is much more important than any one game this season for the franchise. The questionable play calls are a product of any team. No matter the coach, we can point to a call made that makes no sense in hindsight. Pete Carroll in the Super Bowl being the most obvious. Dan Campbell 3rd two point try attempt. However, some of the calls that look bad are due to poor execution and some bad calls. Differentiating between the two can be impossible for fans who do not know these calls or pre-snap adjustments. Though, its clear that there were some play calls Arthur Smith would take back if he could. Falcons offensive line struggled this year and put Arthur Smith in a tough spot: Be aggressive with play calls and risk catastrophe or be conservative and risk giving the other team a chance. No matter which he chose, it seemed to backfire from a turnover whether by Desmond Ridder or Bijan, who himself coughed up the ball 4 times including a huge one in the final Carolina loss.
A lot of fans are upset with Smith’s demeanor. However, this is a surface criticism, but PR is a part of the job. What is a coach supposed to say when the media comes in asking how your not going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL? As a coach, for 3 years everyone wrote them off and didn’t expect much. This year was the year people thought they’d see a step forward even if only slightly. I’d argue it did in many ways, but not in the win column. So time and time again Smith took the blame for the loss. Atlanta media is notoriously bad at covering their sports teams. There are some good personalities, but overall its not a good media base. Arthur Smith at times showed his frustrations and rubbed people wrong. In terms of winning football games, that matters in the least and ownership should not even be putting considerations into the media thoughts. This decision seems to have had a lot of influence from the media and fans.
What doomed the Falcons was the QB play. 29 turnovers from Desmond Ridder alone and most of them at the worst time in the game. Koo has been a fantastic kicker for the Falcons and he to cost the Falcons a game. Bijan cost the Falcons a game against Carolina with the turnover giving them a FG to bring the game within reach. Arthur Smith didn’t miss 2 field goals against Tampa Bay. Arthur Smith didn’t fumble the ball at the 20 against Carolina, or throw an interception in the red zone of a one score game. The vast majority is on the players, with QB play clearly being the biggest issue.
The Falcons franchise was improving. The defense registered 42 sacks. As any Falcons fan can tell you, pass rush has been a huge issue for the better part of 2 decades. In fact, the last time the Falcons registered a 40+ sack season was in 2004. The Jesse Bates signing was spot on. Defensive coordinators like Nielsen and Pees came to be with Arthur Smith. Calais Campbell bought into Arthur Smith. The team has skill position talent. They have some solid pieces on the OL in Mathews and Lindstrom. Bergeron was starting to come on as of late and show he could be a fix at G long term. The team is missing a few parts now to truly compete including the most important position, QB. This was known and it proved to be the Falcons downfall. The issue is now you’ve incentivized future coaches to prioritize QB over everything else because regardless of the state of the rest of the roster, if your QB costs games, it’ll be your job. Not sure you like a guy? Reach anyways because you have no slack to wait to find the right guy for your team. I’ve always believed in building around your QB first, then bringing in a QB. The Falcons had done that and were continuing to do so. Then going into the perfect offseason to grab a QB and address the one big hole left, and the rug gets pulled. This doesn’t encourage front office personnel or coaches to prioritize what’s best for the organization in the long term, but to take unnecessary risks and leverage the future of the organization in an attempt to save their job.
Why does this reek of deeper franchise issues? Its a reaction to the end of a season that had a lot of highs that didn’t show in the win column. Many times in life its darkest just before the light. The Falcons struggled, and Arthur Smith shares blame in that struggle. The Falcons complaints are all on offense this year and as noted above much of the frustration is from execution more so than play calls. Arthur Smith WILL get another job calling the offense. The NFL knows how he is an up and coming mind who has potential in the NFL to be the next great mind from that side of the ball. Much like when Dan Quinn left and now coaches one of the top defenses in the NFL, this isn’t the last you head of Arthur Smith. He will be back on the sidelines and he will get another opportunity. He’s got the respect on that side of the ball. The Falcons very likely will see Smith again, on the opposite sideline. The question will be whether the Falcons improved after this decision or continue with more of the same. Arthur Blank came into the season knowing QB was a question mark and then witnessed that QB lose game after game, yet still put expectations that the Falcons should be a playoff contender. The issue at some point isn’t the results, but the expectations. When expectations don’t align with reality, people often make bad rushed decisions based on their false level of expectation. Arthur Blank has a history of setting unrealistic expectations.
The Falcons made their decision and will begin their new coaching search. However, the sudden change of direction, voice, and philosophy for an organization that was starting to build something new could see the Falcons set back even further. A new coach will inherit the roster Arthur Smith built with Fontenot, and if they bring a major philosophy change, you will find the Falcons again trying to turn a roster and just fight to be competitive. Arthur Smith may or may not have been the right coach, but I’ll contend there was no way to know after this season. This writer would not be surprised to see another Falcons coach leading another organization to success like the many they’ve let walk before (Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel). Frustration from the season was understandable, being the first team to let go of their coach was not. It was based on a arbitrary goal and was too focused on the narrow picture of the second half of 2023 where offensive line play was in decline from injuries and QB play had already proven itself all year to be the Achilles heel of this team. This decision may prove very costly for the Falcons as they once again try to find a direction for their football program. For Falcons fans, there just hoping the next coach can fix the problems of the last coach. What they may find is the last coach could of done so and the new one just created different problems. Smith deserved a 4th season to prove his worth. Coaches should be given time to grow too especially first time coaches taking over franchises in as bad of shape as the Falcons. Hopefully this proves to be the right call long term, but something tells this writer its just more of the same from a Falcons franchise who either waits entirely too long to make the easy decision (firing Mike Smith) or reacts too quickly to ones as they crumble to the heat of fans and media. Arthur Blank wants to win, but he hasn’t shown he’s got that winners intuition to know when to hold and when to fold. This may again be a case of bad choice to fold.
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