The Atlanta Falcons begin 2024 looking for a new head coach. After a disappointing 7-10 season, Arthur Blank made the decision to move on from Arthur Smith and bring a new voice and philosophy to the organization. This next coaching hire could be the biggest in Arthur Blank’s life. Mr Blank turns 82 at the start of the next football season and has made it very well known he wants to win a title. As a fan, this should give you both confidence and caution. Confidence the owner is committed to the organization and has his heart in the right place. Cautious because as the window closes, the reasoning behind the decisions could be influenced by a win now mindset that can lead to short sightedness and rash decisions that not only fail to reach that goal but set the franchise behind years. Here’s a local internet expert and professional arm chair owner to help Blank make the right call!
There are several high profile names that fans would expect to be interviewed. For Rich McKay, Arthur Blank, and Terry Fontenot (maybe?), they’ll first have to sift through these names to find which candidates are interested in coaching the Falcons. For fans, they sometimes forget that the hiring of a head coach is a two way street. Not only does the franchise have to want the candidate, the candidate has to want the job. That’s an aspect that sometimes gets overlooked in this process each off season. We will complain that our team should have hired X or Y coach, but we don’t know if the coach would have even accepted the position. As we review the lists of head coaching candidates, we’ll take a look at their potential interest in the Falcons, schematic fits with the roster, and add some additional context on what makes the candidate intriguing. At the end, we’ll rank the candidates taking into account these factors. Without further ado:
Jim Harbaugh
Up first, a name any football fan is familiar with is Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh gets his roots as a former quarterback with a knack for getting the most out of guys less highly touted. From his days at Stanford, to his time with the Niners and Michigan, Harbaugh has been a winner at every stop in his career. He nearly missed out on a super bowl with the loss to his brother John in Ray Lewis’s last ride.
Schematically, Harbaugh is hard to put a finger on exactly what you’d see. His offensive philosophy has shifted since his time at Stanford and the 49ers, but there are some consistencies over the years. For one, Harbaugh has used some variation of zone read pretty much everywhere he’s coached. Whether he runs this off a shotgun pistol look that’s become more accustomed in Ann Arbor or other variations, expect this concept to carry over. Something else noteworthy is the shift to using more pre-snap motion since his earlier days. Two tight end sets are also very popular with Harbaugh throughout all his stops to help play into the RPO system he gravitates towards. Harbaugh also favors running the ball and pounding opponents into submission. While he’s shifted from a traditional under center two tight end two running back look, that should not be mistaken for Harbaugh taking emphasis off running the ball. Instead, over the years, he’s incorporated elements of the spread and pre-snap motions to amplify those RPOs. Harbaugh was a bit stubborn, but the last 4-5 years he’s shown a willingness to incorporate those elements as they’ve proven their worth with coaches like Kyle Shanahan. However, there are concerns that his offense is still too static and can’t emphasize the pass enough when needed. With Michigan bringing home the national title, I’d only expect Harbaugh’s name to heat up as he silences some of the chatter about not being able to win it all.
Roster wise, Jim Harbaugh may be one of the better fits overall. The Falcons have multiple tight ends (though whether Kyle Pitts really fits the mold of a Harbaugh tight end is an unknown), a strong running back room and a quick slant / big play weapon with London. The offensive line would need some work, regardless of which coach is hired, but especially for Harbaugh as his emphasis on the run will require upgrades in the middle of the line. Defensively, Harbaugh shouldn’t have any issues lining up a solid DC. With his offensive philosophy playing well to defenses who want to be aggressive. Harbaugh has proven the balance works and his defenses tend to be productive units.
Lastly, would Harbaugh want to coach the Falcons? This question is impossible to know for sure at this stage of the process. The Chargers are rumoured to be of interest with Justin Herbert and co. The Raiders are also reportedly interested if they don’t keep Pierce. Harbaugh will have some decent options and the Falcons can make an intriguing case, but the rumor mill has been active for a while around a Harbaugh Herbert pairing. Given the weather in LA after all these years in Ann Arbor, I could see the Chargers being his most appealing option. Falcons may not get a chance to interview. I put this as a lower probability of happening than other candidates, but given the Falcons job wasn’t available until very recently, Harbaugh may have interest that’s gone unreported.
Bill Belichick
You’ve all heard it and should know Belichicks history at this point. The only thing I’ll note here is Belichicks history without Tom Brady (both in NE pre and post, and Cleveland before) should give pause when looking at his history. However, the first 3 super bowls were more a product of the Belichick defense and the last 3 more on the arm of Brady. He also bested Pete Carroll at the 1yd line and proved again he’s got a knack for preparing a team for the biggest moments.
Belichick doesn’t run a single scheme but is well known to adjust and throw wrinkles into several variations based on matchups. Belichicks main call to fame as a coach came on the defensive side. The biggest question is around his offensive coordinators and success. Josh McDaniels seems to be the successful OC who can’t become a good HC. However, there’s a lot of questions around Belichicks strategy of drafting solely based on scheme fits and ignoring best player available. That’s led many to question his ability to scout talents as the Patriots are synonymous with taking a random 3rd round graded player in the first round.
Personnel wise Belichick has worked with worse but the biggest question would remain at QB was Tom Brady just a lucky grab? Jimmy G would be the best QB after Brady, but there have been some other decent backups to come through New England and carve a career in the NFL such as Brian Hoyer. Defensively, Belichick could work with what the Falcons have though i would expect an upgrade at the edge rushing and LB positions.
Would Belichick coach the Falcons? You’d have to think there would be mutual interest. This wouldn’t be the only club of choice, but he’s got connections to the organization’s ownership. He’s familiar with Georgia and scouts the area. The question would really be does he get an offer somewhere he views slightly better than Atlanta such as LA? We’ll have to wait and see.
Eric Bieniemy
One of the most intriguing names to many fans is that of Eric Bieniemy. A coach that many, including Andy Reid, believe should have a head coaching job already took over a middling Washington offense. Bieniemy took a risk and depending who you ask it hurt his chances for a head coaching job. There were reports he was a bad interview and Washington didn’t exactly improve under him. I don’t know how much stock to put into that given the state of the Commanders. He earned his chops working under Andy Reid, and many questioned whether he was behind the success or not. What many don’t realize is Bieniemy was associated with the Andy Reid coaching tree long before he joined Kansas City. Bieniemy broke into the NFL under Brad Childress where he was the running back coach and assistant head coach before moving on to work with Andy Reid (after a stop at Colorado to coach for Karl Dorrell a second time). Ron Rivera gave Bieniemy a shot to prove the naysayers wrong and brought him on to his coaching staff as an assistant head coach / offensive coordinator. Rivera may have been fired as well as Arthur Smith, but it’s hard to point at Bieniemy as the issue. What the Falcons need to know before hiring Bieniemy revolves around his ability to identify, coach, and scheme a new QB. Can those passing concepts be as deadly without a top tier QB?
Offensive scheme is going to be similar to what you see with Andy Reid. Pre snap movements, spread offense, heavy screen game to supplement zone read running concepts. Bieniemy doesn’t run the ball in a traditional sense anywhere near the extent of Arthur Smith. Instead he mixes in pre snap motions and a quick screen game as an extension of the run. The idea is to get the defense to give their hand pre-snap and take advantage of the matchups. The scheme leans on the ability to block in space and have quickness to get up field. From a QB perspective, Bieniemy will need a QB with a quick release and ability to read defenses quickly. He’ll work in options on play calls to give a QB the ability to check into a given play based on defensive alignments.
Looking at the roster, there’s a lot for Bieniemy to work with having Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. Chris Lindstrom will fit whatever blocking scheme you ask for but he’s especially good getting out and blocking in space. However, outside Lindstrom, only Matthews gives you any confidence as a starter next season. Bergeron showed development throughout the season, but the unit needs an influx of talent to operate the offense efficiently. Defensively is probably the biggest question mark. Who will be his coordinator? What type of philosophy will Bieniemy want to establish on his defense? I’ve not seen much chatter about who would join Bieniemy as a DC. Offense wise, Bieniemy aligns well with what the Falcons have, but would need some more help. Defensively it’s hard to know and Falcons will want to know how it plays out on that side of the ball. If Bieniemy could keep the defense unchanged and implement his offense, it could offer the best of both worlds. Will Nielsen stay? Would Bieniemy want him to stay? Important questions to be asked around that side of the ball.
Would Bieniemy want to coach the Falcons? You’d have to think there would be some interest. He has a top flight talent at WR, TE, and RB. They Falcons have plenty of cap space and with Terry Fontenot remaining, he will be walking into a mostly stable front office. The Falcons have never hired an experienced head coach in the Arthur Blank era. The last time a head coach was hired after having previous experience would be Dan Reeves. This bodes well for Bieniemy as Arthur Blank has a tendency for trying to hit on the next up and coming coach versus taking chances with an experienced coach looking for another opportunity. The hard part for him is the fact there were reports last head coaching cycle that he tanked the interview with Arthur Blank. Add the coaches available this cycle and its an uphill battle for Bieniemy with the Commanders offense not taking the step forward they had hoped.
Steve Wilks
This should be a name Falcons fans are familiar with as the interim coach of the Panthers last season. Wilks was the assistant head coach for the Panthers Super bowl run a few years back. Wilks coached the Arizona Cardinal for a single season in 2018 and in what many deemed a travesty was fired after his lone season as coach. Wilks is well traveled in the NFL and FBS. There’s one thing that follows Wilks around and that’s high caliber defensive play. Wilks has served a long career with Ron Rivera who has hired him at multiple stops. Wilks has respect around the league. He’s proven his chops time and time again as one of the best DB coaches and developers in the NFL, but has never really had a shot on his own. There could be some questions around how well his success as a DC could translate into success as a HC.
Schematically, Wilks has been associated with both 3-4 and 4-3 base. Given the Falcons roster, you’d expect he’d like stick to a 4-3 base. Most the snaps are going to come out of the sub packages making the base package a little less of a focus for coaches who are more flexible today than maybe in years past. Wilks would like what he’s working with DB wise in Atlanta. Whether he would retain Ryan Neilsen is an open question. Many Falcons fans like him and he’s had success with this defense.
Personnel wise, AJ Terrell is a premier CB in the NFL as is free safety Jesse Bates III. Richie Grant has played well and Clark Phillips III has showed some promise at times this season. One thing is for sure, Wilks would certainly focus on more pass rush. As a DB coach, he understands the importance of the defensive line getting pressure and moving QBs off their spot in the pocket. Falcons fans will be happy to hear that as they finally surpassed 40 sacks for the first time in 20 years this past season. To keep this fan base happy, winning and getting sacks go a long way.
Would Wilks coach the Falcons? Given the Falcons are in a good shape with talent on the roster, cap space to work with and decent draft capital, I do not see any reason Wilks would turn down the Falcons job if offered. Something interesting to watch is if a guy like Wilks can bring in a staff that can convince Blank he isn’t just bringing in the defense. There are quality offensive assistants that are ready for an opportunity under Shanahan. We’ve seen this success work for Demeco Ryans with the poaching of Bobby Slowik. A story line to keep an eye on as the coaching search develops in the coming days/weeks.
Ben Johnson
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been a hot name as an up and coming play designer. If you’ve watched the resurgence of Detroit under Johnson, you can clearly see why. Detroit has one of the top rushing attacks since Johnson took over averaging over 128/GM without a rushing QB. I like to caveat that as sometimes rush statistics can be skewed with more mobile QBs who scramble for yards. It hasn’t really mattered who ran the ball as DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs have all seen success under Johnson’s tutelage. Before becoming OC, Johnson was the tight ends coach under the surge of TJ Hockenson and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say he’s likely a key part of the decision to trade Hockenson and draft LaPorta. In hindsight, that trade looks to be an absolute genius move to replace a talented weapon with a rookie instead of resigning. It was a gamble but one Campbell and Johnson clearly planned in advance. Johnson and Campbell have a long history together. Both coached under Joe Philbin and the Dolphins and you can see the McCarthy influence on his offense with some interesting wrinkles
Johnson’s scheme is a blend of gap and zone running concepts to set up multiple plays out of a single look. Johnson’s seen success running a more gap blocking style offensive line personnel and they’re not particularly good at zone runs (ranking in the bottom half in avg yards per carry on such play calls). However, when running counters, power, and traps, the Lions surge to top 10 on all those play calls and averaging over 5yds per carry on such runs. The Lions use a lot of 11 personnel and when watching film it can be hard to determine pre-snap what the play call will be as Johnson does a nice job of designing multiple plays within a single look.
Personnel wise, Johnson would be missing a few pieces to run the offense the way he has in Detroit. First, Kyle Pitts is a different mood tight end than LaPorta or Hockenson. Johnson runs 11 personnel with the tight ends hand in the dirt a lot as an inline blocker. They can run different run and passing concepts from that look giving defenses another element to consider. Pitts doesn’t fit the mold of a hand in the dirt tight end and has had issues blocking the first few years in the league. Additionally, the offensive blocking concepts would require a re-tooling of the offensive line. Lindstrom should adjust fine, but the rest of the line would need evaluated. This is something the Falcons already have a need for, and I won’t weight this too hard. Another misalignment could be the WR room. Johnson will certainly make use of Drake London, but the WR room will need some more speed to set up the defense on pre-snap motions. Defensively, we’d have to see who would want to coach under Johnson and what kind of defensive philosophy they’d want to instill. Falcons defense improved this year, but I’d argue it’s as much scheme related as talent. Can the Johnson bring a DC who can scheme pressure and stops? That’s an unknown.
Brian Callahan
Brian Callahan is the current offensive coordinator with the Bengals. He’s a name that has heated up as the success of the Bengals offense (especially after Burrow’s injury) has remained steady in his tenure. He was an offensive assistant for John Fox and he’d tell you he runs a version of the Sean Peyton west coast offense with the Bengals. He is the son of former coach Bill Callahan and has a long connection with the NFL. At 39, he’s one of the younger coaching candidates this coaching cycle, but has amassed 14yrs experience in that time frame. He was an offensive assistant to the 2015 Bronco’s championship team. He’s also had multiple stops as quarterbacks coach and the rise of Joe Burrow has contributed to the rise of his name in coaching circles. Expect more of a spread system with west coast concepts and less emphasis on pounding the run if Callahan gets the job
Schematically, as mentioned above, Callahan comes from a west coast style offense. There are many variations of this offense but they all emphasis timing and route running to put defenses in tough positions. Callahan seems a little more flexible in his style mixing in spread concepts as well and has done a good job in Cincinnati adjusting play calling and play concepts to the roster. This showed in 2023 as the play calling and style had to shift when Burrow was lost for the season and they had to bring in Jake Browning to finish the season. Callahan was able to keep the offense formidable enough to give the Bengals a playoff shot despite losing Burrow for the season and Chase at various points in the season.
Personnel wise, Callahan could make use of the talent the Falcons have, but it will still come down to QB. Callahan has a long coaching history with QBs, and this should help him if he joined the Falcons to isolate their QB of the future. Given the Bengals are in a separate conference the relationship could open a bridge for a guy like Jake Browning if Callahan thinks he could be that guy. Its hard to say where Callahan would go with this offense, and the fact the Bengals ran a shaky offensive line throughout his tenure means he may not be as focused on fixing some of the offensive line issues.
Would he take the job? Similar to a Wilks or Johnson, I think these are guys who have to take the best opportunity when its presented. The Falcons offer quite a bit for Callahan to work with and there’s not much reason to believe he would not accept the job.
Mike MacDonald
Mike MacDonald is the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. He has coached as defensive coordinator under both Harbaugh brothers after working with Michigan in 2021 to reach the College Football Playoff. He’s one of the youngest candidates this cycle at 36yrs old, but he’s worked his way up to this position under two very well respected coaches in the Harbaugh brothers. He started in Mark Richt’s staff at Georgia and while coaching earned his master’s degree in sports management.
MacDonald runs a version of shell defenses with different fronts and blitz assignments. What’s made the defense interesting is the way they run different personnel groupings and pre-snap formation alignments to mask and confuse the offense with what they want to do. The scheme is somewhat similar to what you see with Nielsen where your running a lot of cover 3 assignments and trying to teach players to be flexible within their coverage assignments. Understanding route concepts and playing the receivers even when in a zone look. The defense can be complicated to learn as there’s a lot of variation, but MacDonald has some tricks for implementing quicker he learned from Harbaugh. The scheme is successful as it keeps offenses second guessing the blitz assignments and there’s enough variations to the zone coverages that even when offenses guess correctly there is little room for mistakes. Defenses (both at Michigan and Baltimore) have put the pressure on the offense to make plays in tight windows.
Personnel wise there are some questions for fit. To be clear, this is less around the scheme, and more the Falcons ability to identify and draft the right personnel to excel in this system. Is Arthur Blank willing to let him draft less flashy positions that may take time to build a juggernaut system? Based on recent comments and history, I would have reservations Blank is willing to accept mediocrity for a couple years. This makes it a tough case for MacDonald. He certainly has pieces to work with within the defense, but it’s not ready made and it’ll take time for the personnel to learn the concepts to build the cohesion needed to run it successfully. Additionally there’s questions on who would lead the offense and philosophy on that side of the ball. Would this require rebuilding beyond the QB position? Lots of questions here around what the Falcons personnel would need to be for a successful coaching tenure for MacDonald.
Would he take the Falcons job? There would certainly be interest. However, given Blanks recent comments around wanting to win next year and having immediate term goals, this could give him pause. Does he think the roster is ready to win the way he intends to win today? Does he think Terry Fontenot can provide him the same scouting edge he’s enjoyed with the Ravens? If not, then even if he wants the job, he may pass in hopes of finding a better situation to allow him to grow with a roster of his making.
Bobby Slowik
Bobby Slowik is a name many fans may not be familiar with, but has one of the more interesting paths to head coach. Another young riser at only 36yrs old. He is from the Shanahan coaching tree and started with Shanahan in Washington as a defensive coach. His dad is long time coach and current CFL coach Bob Slowik. His dad worked on the defensive side of the ball and Bobby came in as a defensive assistant coach. He took a hiatus from NFL coaching after 2013, and came back as a defensive quality coach with Shanahan in 2017. He then moves to the offensive side of the ball in 2019 as an assistant and then pass game coordinator. He was hired last season as offensive coordinator when Demeco Ryan’s took over as head coach after a successful stint as defensive coordinator under Shanahan.
Scheme follows the Shanahan tree of zone blocking and west coast passing concepts. It’s hard to say exactly what scheme Slowik will run outside general concepts given his very small history as a play caller. However in that short span he’s shown the ability to bring along a rookie QB, successfully, and provide an offense with a spark. He can draw up plays to get the talents on the roster open and he’s got a QB who’s been able to make plays. Given the Falcons could have a rookie QB next season and how well CJ Stroud adjusted compared to Bryce Young, Slowik is an intriguing candidate.
Personnel decisions will be important but Slowik is working with arguably less in Houston when you remove the QB from the equation. There’s just not enough history to know exactly how he’d use the current personnel and the potential success or failure of that. This question will have to be addressed in interviews and without any inside track, this is the hardest candidate to gauge. Maybe he’s got a connection with other coaches unreported where he can leverage those to build a staff? I just don’t know how to gauge him at this point in his career.
Would he take the Falcons job? It would be surprising he wouldn’t take the jump, but then again he wouldn’t be the first to wait before making the jump. Some candidates want to wait for the right opportunity in their career to make the move. Smart candidates must consider if the organization is going to hurt their career. Given the firing of Arthur Smith with no leeway after coaching up a depleted roster for two seasons could give a guy like Slowik pause.
Final Rankings & Predictions
When reviewing these candidates I had to weigh a few things to try and determine who I think WILL be hired not necessarily who I think we SHOULD hire. Those are separate debates and the only way to gauge who we might hire is to review comments and considerations from those who will make the ultimate call on who will be hired: Arthur Blank, first and foremost, Rick McKay, and to at least some extent Terry Fontenot (though to what extent is questioned). Blank did say the coach reports to him not the GM and fans wonder why the Falcons continue this structure given the recent problems the Falcons have had with inconsistency.
The main factors weighing here in order of importance to Blank and co:
1. Win NOW : Blank has made no secret he wants to win now. He’s talked openly of his desire to win a championship in his lifetime. He’s not getting younger and I think this is his first a foremost desire.
2. Personal Background : Rich McKay and Arthur Blank have shown they want a resume of somebody with a generally clean record. Blank consistently talks about character and faith in his coaching hires. I’d expect this to continue to weigh heavily
3. Locker Room Fit : Blank does take time to consider the fit of a coach and the locker room. Falcons have generally not had issues with rebellions to coaches just lack of success. This will still be weighed to some extent
4. Personnel fit : this will be somewhat important as it goes with the #1 most important item. I don’t know if they can properly evaluate this metric given recent history, but I do think Blank will listen to McKay & Fontenot input here.
5. Coaching record : there will be comes weight out on this, but I actually put it at the bottom as Blank has hired rookie head coaches his entire time running the Falcons and tends to put no weight on their coaching record other than if they’re a hot name
Now that we’ve established the weight factors here’s the final, likely completely wrong, prediction of the Falcons preferred list of candidates for their next coaching hire and who they will target to sign:
Runner Up:
Jim Harbaugh. I put him as runner up as I believe there would be heavy interest from the Falcons. I think to some extent there may even be a little interest from Harbaugh, but ultimately I don’t know if the cards align given the Chargers situation (both at QB and weather) may be more enticing (assuming he even wants to leave Michigan). Ultimately, Falcons may have him even above Belichick but may find there’s no interest from Harbaugh given the organization structure.
Dark Horse:
Ben Johnson. There’s a lot to like about Ben Johnson and his fit. He brings fresh offense has proven to be able to develop QB and you may be able to keep Ryan Neilsen to maintain stability on defense. Blank is known to hire first time coaches and Ben Johnson is one of the hottest offensive minds this coaching cycle. There’s a path for him to the Falcons coaching job, but Belichick made it a bit more of an uphill climb.
The Pick:
Bill Belichick. While this may seem as a surprise given the coaching record is the final weighted factor, there is one hidden factor: Arthur Blank’s connection with Robert Kraft. However there’s also a strong argument the Belichick gives them the best chance to win now. He’s a proven commodity and rarely does a coach with 6 rings become available for a franchise to hire out right. It gives Belichick a chance to right his wrongs with the Mac Jones draft choice and prove that he can win without Tom Brady.
I don’t think this will be the right hire and there’s signs of desperation with the Falcons. Add on the odd organization structure with Rich McKay and Arthur Blank having coaches report to them, the lack of cohesion with the general manager, and it always feels like there is a quiet dysfunction with the Falcons. This could explain why some players feel under utilized if there is a genuine disconnect between what the coaches need in players and what they receive. If this is the hire, you could do much worse. While Falcons fans would likely complain even with hiring a 6 time super bowl champion coach, there should still be optimism that Belichick could get more out of the roster. Falcons lost a lot of one score games, but with the right coaching and QB play, Belichick COULD get the Falcons to the promise land. I share the doubts of many though around WILL he do so. Can’t wait to be proven wrong in a couple weeks when the Falcons hire Bobby Slowik!
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