NCAAF

The Best QB in the Draft

The Best QB in the Draft (According to the numbers of Course)
“What does it take to be…Number 1?” 2 is not a winner and 3 no one remembers.  Ouch!  That’s rough.  There’s been plenty of 2’s and 3’s who call their house the Hall of Fame, but to be the #1 QB in the draft we must first look at the numbers:
Note that I’m choosing the people who are talked about the most and I’m not going to show all QB’s in the draft.  Let’s have a look at their passing yards, their total yards, and pass efficiency.  The idea is that by getting their NCAA rankings for the total offensive contributions and finding out who was the most efficient at dong it (based on numbers of course).
Passing Yards:
1. Mason Rudolph4904
2. Baker Mayfield 4627
3. Riley Ferguson 4257
5. Sam Darnold 4143
14. Josh Rosen 3756
15. Lamar Jackson 3660
16. Luke Falk 3593
82. Josh Allen 1812
Rushing Yds (Total Yds):
6. Lamar Jackson 1601 (5261)
-Baker Mayfield 311 (4938)
-Josh Allen 204 (2016)
-Sam Darnold 82 (4225)
-Mason Rudolph 35 (4939)
-Riley Ferguson 22 (4279)
-Josh Rosen -97 (3659)
-Luke Falk -147 (3446)
Pass Efficiency:
1. Baker Mayfield 198.9
3. Mason Rudolph 170.6
7. Riley Ferguson 161.2
26. Sam Darnold 148.1
28. Josh Rosen 147
29. Lamar Jackson 146.6
50. Luke Falk 137
72. Josh Allen 127.8
Total Offense:
1. Lamar Jackson
2. Mason Rudolph
5. Baker Mayfield
8. Josh Rosen
10. Riley Ferguson
15. Sam Darnold
17. Mike White
23. Luke Falk
80. Josh Allen
(Total Offense+Pass Efficiency)/2:
1. Mason Rudolph 2.5
2. Baker Mayfield 3
3. Riley Ferguson 8.5
4. Lamar Jackson 15
5. Josh Rosen 18
6. Sam Darnold 20.5
7. Luke Falk 36.5
8. Josh Allen 76
From a numbers standpoint, Mason Rudolph seems to the be best QB in the draft followed by Baker Mayfield.  From a numbers standpoint, Josh Allen is overrated, but his ranking is based more off other measurable variables.  Not everything is based on numbers and there’s no stat that says Josh Allen had a terrible offensive line and was constantly under pressure.  There’s no stat that shows the quality of opponent and the difficulty it was to achieve their statistics, such as running up the score or playing a teams with bad secondaries.  So let’s look at some other numbers.
What about Points responsible for
1. Baker Mayfield 296
2. Mason Rudolph 282
3. Lamar Jackson 272

 

40 time?
1. Lamar Jackson (no time, but he’s #1)
2. Josh Allen 4.75
3. Baker Mayfield 4.84
I want to compare athleticism for a couple of other guys not named Lamar Jackson.
20yd Shuttle, 3 Cone Drill, Vertical, Broad Jump, 40:
Baker Mayfield – 4.28, 7.0, 29.0, 111, 4.84
Josh Allen4.4, 6.9, 33.5, 119, 4.75
Sam Darnold – 4.4, 6.96, 26.5, 105, 4.85
Josh Rosen4.28, 7.09, 31.0, 111, 4.92
J.T. Barrett – 4.44, 7.38, 30, 108, 4.7
Most Athletic of the 5:
Allen 3,1,1,1,2 = 1.6
Mayfield 1,3,4,2,3 = 2.6
Rosen 1,4,2,2,5 = 2.8
Barrett 5,5,3,4,1 = 3.6
Darnold 3,2,5,5,4 = 3.8
Since Lamar Jackson didn’t partake in non throwing drills at the combine he isn’t on this list.  Mason Rudolph also missed on some combine drills, though he ran a 4.9 40 and a 26” broad jump.
If we look at the information above we see Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are the top 2 QB’s in the draft.  Lamar Jackson has all the numbers and athleticism to be in consideration for the best in the draft.  While Baker Mayfield has the measurables as well as career statistics to support his case.
A lot that goes into defining the best QB is value.  If you take the best QB with the 1st pick, you didn’t really get good value having to sign that person to a max rookie contract.  However, Lamar Jackson is trending towards the end of the 1st round now.  Mason Rudolph is projected to be a 2nd rounder and Riley Ferguson is projected to go behind Rudolph.  True value would be finding a serviceable QB on day 2 or 3 of the draft.
My 3 QB value picks:
1. Riley Ferguson
2. Mason Rudolph
3. J.T. Barrett (responsible for 284 pts, 8th best Pass Eff., 30th in total offense)
If you want value, J.T. Barrett or Riley Ferguson are the best late round picks. Mason Rudolph is undervalued and looks to be a solid 2nd round pick for anyone.  Lamar Jackson is the best late 1st round pick.  However, the best QB in this draft is Baker Mayfield…of course…you know…according to the numbers…

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