Fantasy, Football, NFL

Fantasy Football – QB Edition

Yesterday I touched on the Running Backs I’m looking at drafting when my drafts come around.  It’s not a ranking system, just my personal views of who I’ll be looking for given the right scenario.

When looking at a QB, I look at where I can draft them vs what’s still available.  Seeing as RB’s are the hardest to find later in the draft, the first 2 rounds should be focused on high-end RBs and WRs.  I was burned on Aaron Rodgers last year as my early QB pick (our QB’s get 6 points per TD, -3 INTs, and -6 for a pick 6), though I was able to salvage it with Jared Goff.  There is obviously risk reward when evaluating QB’s early, but here’s 10 I’ll have my eye on.

I entered a 10 team mock draft to see where the QBs are falling and where the steals could be.  I’ll put the round next to the QB in parentheses. 

  1. Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and fantasy-wise his scheme allows him to rack up numbers and stats.  Generally, when the Packers score a touchdown it usually comes from Aaron Rodgers’ hand. (6th Round)
  2. Russell Wilson – Russell can usually be taken in the middle rounds and was our league MVP last season.  His mobility is nice for rushing yards but helps set up big plays when he is able to buy time and extend plays. (7th Round)
  3. Deshaun Watson – If he’s fully healthy for 16 games, he’ll have the ability to be one of the top fantasy QB options.  His injury significantly hurt some teams’ playoffs hopes last year.  It also always helps to have a top 5 WR to throw to.  Getting the bundle would be a very nice combo this season. (6th Round)
  4. Tom Brady – I almost never draft Brady because he goes so high every year.  I’d rather sit back and relax on QBs for a while but if he slides at all in a 10 player draft, I’ll be there to snag him up. (6th Round)
  5. Drew Brees – there once was a time when Drew Brees was a top 3 fantasy QB.  They’ve put more emphasis on the the run game recently but having Kamara on the field opens up everything for that offense.  As long as him and Peyton are together, I’ll keep my eyes on a late round pick. (10th Round)
  6. Carson Wentz – If you aren’t looking for Wentz, you need to.  Think about playoffs.  You can practically guarantee he’ll be healthy and ready to play in the fantasy playoffs.  He’s a dual threat QB with a championship team around him.  He’ll probably fall if word gets out he isn’t going to start week 1, which means late value for one of the better fantasy QBs from last year.  (7th Round)
  7. Phillip Rivers – I normally don’t like drafting Rivers because of the fear of the unknown.  Rivers loves to throw it around recklessly at times and can kill any fantasy team.  However, with a strong offensive line and Keenan Allen healthy for another season, I wouldn’t mind having him this year, especially if I can grab him after Round 10. (14th Round)
  8. Dak Prescott – Dak should benefit from a full season with Zeke and the addition of some speedsters who can get behind the defense and open things up for everyone.  His accuracy is an issue for me as he never really figured out how to utilize Dez, but maybe that was just bad chemistry and a bad pairing.  We’ll see how that goes this year.  I’d take him late in the draft.  Not in the first 10 rounds.  (undrafted)
  9. Matt Ryan – Though I’m not expecting an MVP like season, he should have a much better year this year.  Though the Falcons want to pound the rock, the addition of Calvin Ridley suggests a different strategy.  Also, I expect more TDs from Julio this season than in years past. (Round 14)
  10. Andrew Luck – This is mainly a gamble that he’ll be back to his old self sometime this season.  He’s rusty, definitely, but by week 6 he should be in the swing of things and I would have hated to miss out on a late round pick with a lot of upside.  Plus you can always grab someone else in even later rounds to play until Luck looks the way he should be. (9th Round)

Other Notable QBs:

  1. Alex Smith – He had one of the better fantasy years in 2017 and with a new team with new players he might get overdrafted this year.  If he falls deep I’d take him but I’d make sure to have another option.
  2. Tyrod Taylor – would be a nice fantasy option if you are waiting for Wentz to get healthy or Luck to get back into form.  There are options in Cleveland this year so he might be able to work some magic trying to prove himself as a starter.
  3. Patrick Mahomes II – Andy Reid + all returning weapons + Sammy Watkins is a recipe I like.  He may be unproven but the upside is definitely there.
  4. Jared Goff – Goff helped QB one of the better offenses in 2017 and if they are to have a good season again he’ll have to have another strong season.  He did salvage my fantasy team once Rodgers and Mariota went down.

People I’m not drafting in 2018:  And a quick reason why.

  1. Matthew Stafford -6 games of 1 or fewer TDs in 2017
  2. Kirk Cousins – 7 games of 1 or fewer Passing TDs in 2017
  3. Blake Bortles – Not a believer
  4. Jet’s Quarterbacks – The Jets are a bad offensive team
  5. Eli Manning – can’t judge him off 2017 but had 4 games of 0 TDs in 2016…so…
  6. Case Keenum – yet to prove it outside of last year
  7. Ben Roethlisberger – doesn’t offer the same value as others drafted around him
  8. Cam Newton – No Offensive line = more sacks and rushed passes
  9. Joe Flacco – Has he really ever been a solid fantasy QB?
  10. Andy Dalton – ”                                                   “?
  11. Jameis Winston – Going to miss time and sort of inconsistent
  12. Derek Carr – Had him last year and he failed me in another league, so no
  13. Marcus Mariota – Too many injuries to rely on him week in and week out
  14. Mitchell Trubisky – He should change his name back to Mitch
  15. Jimmy Garoppolo – can he carry a team for an entire season?
  16. Ryan Tannehill – was a WR in College
  17. Bills Quarterbacks – too cold for comfort
  18. Cardinals Quarterbacks – Bradford or Rosen?  I’ll take neither
  19. Nick Foles – If you’re starting Foles week 1, you’re team is in serious trouble

Feel Free to disagree with me on this one.  My outlook is for the playoffs and who do I want to be my QB to win a championship.  Feel free to draft your own guys if you like someone more than I do.

Let the games begin.

*https://sports.gunaxin.com/2016-fantasy-football-qb-rankings/197905

**http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&season=2018&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=0&qualified=false&Submit=Go

***espn.com fantasy football for the mock draft

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