Wow, week 5, how the NFL season flies by so much quicker than the off-season is a true mystery but hey I guess ‘’Time flies when your having fun’’ has some validity to it. A new week means a new slate on Draftkings and another chance to take down that 1,00,000 dollar first prize in the MillyMaker. That will be the objective in today’s article, so the tips listed here are only for the main slate of games starting at 7 pm and 10:05/10:25 pm EST. The picks below are tiered in pricing so you can effectively build a core of players. In addition, the pricing is in line with DK and the plays are based on a PPR (Point per reception) system. With that out of the way let’s get on with the plays.
High-End Plays- 7000$ and up
Saquon Barkley (7700$)– A lot of people will consider Barkley lucky for meeting value last week with that late touchdown against the Saints, and he was. But just like on the other side of the ball in this game, this running back is seeing plenty of both rushing attempts and targets. Barkley is essentially game script proof and that is an important caveat to consider in a game that sees the Giants as 6 point dogs and will likely see the Giants drop back to pass more often then not. That situation will see Barkley’s targets increase and lead to a higher floor and ceiling on PPR sites.
Christian McCaffrey (8000$)– There is not a whole lot this guy can’t do, he is an explosive runner and has unreal hands. He leads the Panthers in rushing and receiving this season and it appears Ron Rivera’s preseason promise to get him 25-30 touches per game is coming true. The New York Giants do rank decently in defense against running backs coming in at 8th against the position. However, this is heavily mitigated by the sheer volume McCaffrey sees on a weekly basis alongside his great PPR upside. This game-script proof running back makes a great play this Sunday and at 8000$ he remains too cheap given his role.
Davante Adams (7600$)– Watch the injury report with this one as Adams missed out on practice Thursday. However, if he does suit up, he will be in an absolute slam dunk spot against the Lions on Sunday. With both Allison and Cobb doubtful to see the field Sunday. We can expect even more targets for a guy who got 14 looks just last week against the Bills. When we add on the fact that he will be facing the Detroit Lions defense, who are the 28th ranked defence according to Football Outsiders DVOA statistics, we can make a very strong argument for Adams to be in our line-ups come Sunday.
Mid Range Plays- 5000$-6900$
Alshon Jeffrey (6200$)– Well, Carson Wentz’s number one wide-out was back with a bang against the Titans in week 4 with 8 catches for 105 yards and a TD. Draftkings decided he was worth a 500$ bump in salary after that performance, far too small a bump in my eyes. He still seems about 1000$ too cheap in a home game against a Vikings unit who has really struggled the last three weeks. Although the game script could turn out negatively if the Eagles get out to an early lead, I do expect the Vikings, at least on offence, to hold up their part of the bargain and keep this one close. I look at Alshon as a guy who should smash value this week at just 6200$, and get us closer to scoring in that big GPP.
Golden Tate (6700$)– It can be tough at times to figure out who of the three Detroit wide-outs to play on a given slate with the way Stafford loves to spread the ball around. Golden Tate, however, seems to have separated from the pack as Stafford’s go-to guy. He is averaging 11 targets a game this year and only failed to meet value in one of these game. That game turned out to be a negative game script for Tate, in which the Lions no longer needed to throw the ball, in a route of the New England Patriots 26-10. This game will be much tighter then that one was, and lead to the Detroit Lions needing to throw for all 4 quarters. I expect Tate to once again see 10+ targets, and do plenty with them.
Amari Cooper (5500$)– If you give up 27 points to CJ Beathard I am probably going to notice, and likely pick on you in the following weeks. Amari Cooper really is the definition of a GPP play, he has been on MillyMaker winning line-ups, and then puts up 43 yards on 3 catches…or worse. There are a few reasons to be optimistic about a big game out of Cooper in this spot though. First, he is in a game with a 52.5 point total, which is expected to be reasonably close, and keep the Raiders throwing for the full game. Secondly, as I said above, this Chargers defence is suspect, they have given up 27, 35, 20, and 38 points to the opposition this year, and that 20 spot came against the greatest franchise in NFL history…the Buffalo Bills. Also taking into account the Chargers are dead last in DVOA to WR 1’s, he’s worth the risk if you can handle the variance.
Doug Baldwin (5000$)– Russell Wilson is likely having nightmares of Aaron Donald right now and they are probably justified as he will be running for his life come Sunday. Although I feel bad for Russ, this can mean good things for us in a DFS sense. Good things like broken plays where Russ runs around in the backfield for 5+ seconds and then chucks it 60 yards down-field. Sure, Russ can get sacked 5+ times in this one, but we only need one of those bombs to hit Baldwin to meet value and we have all seen that happen multiple times at Centurylink Field.
Value Plays- 4900$ and below
DeDe Westbrook (4700$)– Yea, recency bias, I get it, and we might get burned with this play. However, it seems necessary to have some part of this Jacksonville Jaguar offence in this spot. It seems like even an all-star defence like the Jags will struggle to slow down Mahomes and this high powered Chiefs offence. This will very likely lead to a positive game script for all the Jags wide-outs and at 4700$ we only need him to get a fraction of what he got last week to meet value. He also provides a great pivot play from Marvin Jones Jr who is at the same price and will be very chalky in week 5.
Rhett Ellison (2700$)– Certainly not the sexiest play in the world, but at 2700$ he does provide plenty of salary relief on a slate with plenty of great high end plays. There is some reason to be excited about his potential upside, however. Now that Evan Engram is injured he is the TE 1 in New York, and his first game as the undisputed number 1 he got 5 targets. That is not bad at all for a guy whose salary is hovering just above the minimum. Also last week he played the Saints who are the number 9 DVOA defence against the position. That is in sharp contrast to the Panthers who do not seem interested in covering TE’s at all coming in at 30th per DVOA. I would certainly recommend locking in Rhett Ellison as your sneaky TE play this weekend at just 2700$.
Bengals D/ST- I don’t know if you guys have noticed, but every time a team loses their play calling linebacker the defence typically goes into the tank. Sean Lee, Ryan Shazier, Luke Keuchly, when these guys go down it is bad news for that defence. The Bengals have their own guy who may not quite be in that echelon but is pretty damn close. That guy, of course, is Vontaze Burfict who the Bengals get back this weekend off the back of a 4 game suspension. I look for Vontaze to make a big difference for an already pretty decent defensive unit. Another positive point is that the Bengals are hosting the Miami Dolphins who are just coming off a pretty humiliating defeat to the New England Patriots. I don’t see much changing for the Dolphins in this one and I will look to Burfict to make the difference here and easily make value at 2700$.
Also Considering-
Russell Wilson (5100$)- Hey you don’t lose points for getting sacked and he definitely gets points for those bombs I am predicting he will be throwing down-field
Tyler Lockett (4600$)– The other guy who could be on the end of a 60-yard bomb this weekend, but my main exposure will be with Baldwin.
Jordy Nelson (4500$)- In the same great match up as Amari, will sprinkle in GPP’s
Adam Thielen (7700$)– Will garner ownership but what wide-out wouldn’t with 4 straight games with 100+ yards and 12+ targets
Brandin Cooks (7400$)– The main guy I will be bringing it back with in my SEA/LAR stacks
Jimmy Graham (4700$)– Not my favourite play but Rodgers has to throw to someone and he is one of the few left standing for the Green Bay Packers
Christian Kirk (3700$)– No advanced analytics here, but this kid passes the eye test, just a gut play here
Final Note: A lot of people who are reading this are wondering why I did not mention the Falcons/Steelers game. It has all the makings of a 42-35 classic, but there is a problem with this when you are playing GPP’s. The ownership on everyone on that field is going to be insanely high and although it is a smash spot for both these sides I am going to somewhat limit exposure. Thats not to say im using 0%, but I am picking my spots and using them sparingly here. Cheers and good luck to all our readers in NFL week 5.
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